Active Geopolitical Crisis
US-Israel-Iran War
US-Israel military operations against Iran. Major regional conflict affecting oil markets, global trade, and risk assets. Flight to safety (gold, treasuries). Crypto initially sells off as risk asset, potential recovery as digital gold narrative.
ML Signal
12.5% prob · 30-day
Cycle Phase
Correction
22 mo post-halving #4
Direction Accuracy
70%
21/30 correct
ATH Drawdown
-48.4%
From $126.2k ATH
BTC Halving Cycle — Feaws Quarterly Projection
Wyckoff structure // Fibonacci anchors // Cycle phases
Feaws Quarterly Price Ranges
Q1 2026
$55k–$82k
Testing Fib 61.8%
Q2 2026
$38k–$68k
Capitulation zone
Q3 2026
$52k–$88k
Bottoming + recovery
Q4 2026
$78k–$118k
Impulse recovery
Q1 2027
$100k–$150k
Bull cycle resumes
Q2 2027
$130k–$200k
Cycle 4 ATH zone
Halving Cycle
Bitcoin follows a ~4-year cycle anchored to halving events. We are 22 mo post-halving #4 (Apr 2024), in the correction phase. Historically the cycle low occurs 18–30 months post-halving → Q2–Q3 2026 bottom.
Fibonacci Levels
Cycle 3 ran $15.5k → $126.2k. Key retracements: 61.8% = $57,787 (typical correction floor) and 78.6% = $39,190 (deep correction). These anchor the Q2 2026 capitulation box floor.
30d Forecast
Feaws runs GARCH(1,1) vol + GBR+Ridge ML drift + 10,000 Monte Carlo paths. Top forecast model: ML + Factor — 70% dir acc. Paper trading uses Balanced Hybrid.
Why Trust Feaws
Real Data
165,202 candles across 28 symbols from Binance, yfinance & Hyperliquid.
Zero Lookahead
30 quarterly walk-forward windows. Uses only past data — no future leakage.
Validated OOS
70% direction accuracy on 30 out-of-sample test windows. 96.7% CI90 coverage.
Open Logic
Every formula — GARCH, GBR, Monte Carlo, HMM — is documented step-by-step.
Hard Risk Cap
−20% hard stop-loss fires regardless of signal. No discretionary overrides.