Active Geopolitical Crisis
US-Israel-Iran War
US-Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran Feb 28, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated with 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. Parallel Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon since Mar 2. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Mojtaba Khamenei elected new Supreme Leader Mar 8. Conflict in Day 23+ with no ceasefire — possible ceasefire by May 2026.
ML Signal
7.7% prob · 30-day
Cycle Phase
Correction
23 mo post-halving #4
Direction Accuracy
70%
21/30 correct
ATH Drawdown
-45.9%
From $126.2k ATH
BTC Halving Cycle — Feaws Quarterly Projection
Wyckoff structure // Fibonacci anchors // Cycle phases
Feaws Quarterly Price Ranges
Q1 2026
$60k–$102k
War crash + recovery (actual)
Q2 2026
$48k–$78k
War uncertainty / ceasefire watch
Q3 2026
$62k–$95k
Post-war recovery
Q4 2026
$80k–$120k
Impulse recovery
Q1 2027
$100k–$150k
Bull cycle resumes
Q2 2027
$130k–$200k
Cycle 4 ATH zone
Halving Cycle
Bitcoin follows a ~4-year cycle anchored to halving events. We are 23 mo post-halving #4 (Apr 2024), in the correction phase. Historically the cycle low occurs 18–30 months post-halving → Q2–Q3 2026 bottom.
Fibonacci Levels
Cycle 3 ran $15.5k → $126.2k. Key retracements: 61.8% = $57,787 (typical correction floor) and 78.6% = $39,190 (deep correction). These anchor the Q2 2026 capitulation box floor.
30d Forecast
Feaws runs GARCH(1,1) vol + GBR+Ridge ML drift + 10,000 Monte Carlo paths. Top forecast model: ML + Factor — 70% dir acc. Paper trading uses Balanced Hybrid.
Why Trust Feaws
Real Data
165,202 candles across 28 symbols from Binance, yfinance & Hyperliquid.
Zero Lookahead
30 quarterly walk-forward windows. Uses only past data — no future leakage.
Validated OOS
70% direction accuracy on 30 out-of-sample test windows. 96.7% CI90 coverage.
Open Logic
Every formula — GARCH, GBR, Monte Carlo, HMM — is documented step-by-step.
Hard Risk Cap
−20% hard stop-loss fires regardless of signal. No discretionary overrides.