Edition · Today
Live
The Bitcoin
intelligence brief.
A single, opinionated read on where Bitcoin stands — on-chain, in derivatives, and against the ensemble's own forecast. Written every few hours, not every minute.
Spot · BTC/USD
$68,290
Regime
Crisis— Macro stress; risk assets distressed.
Model · 30-day
DOWNp(up) 8%
I.Current read
Where the market sits right now
A single page of what every long-cycle and short-cycle indicator is saying — interpreted, not just printed.
MVRV ratio
1.18
—
CoinMetrics
Puell multiple
0.55
miner stress — historically supportive
derived
Hash ribbon
1.003
neutral
derived
Funding (8h, avg)
-0.0008%
neutral — leverage isn't crowded
Binance · Bybit · OKX
DVOL (30d IV)
44.9
moderate implied vol
Deribit
Put / Call OI
0.65
calls outweigh puts — bullish skew
Deribit
Mempool fee tier
3sat/vB
chain quiet — no congestion
mempool.space
Binance perp OI
98KBTC
depth on the largest USDT-perp
Binance Futures
Hashrate (3-day)
863EH/s
network security telemetry
mempool.space
II.On-chain
What the chain itself is signalling
Soon: full long-cycle MVRV / Puell / Hash Ribbon charts with regime overlays.
III.Derivatives
What positioning is paying for
Soon: funding curves across venues, OI flow, and the options surface from Deribit.
IV.Forecast
What the ensemble currently expects
Soon: the three-scenario monthly distribution and the ensemble's confidence interval.