Active Geopolitical Crisis
US-Israel-Iran War
US-Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran Feb 28, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran retaliated with 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. Parallel Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon since Mar 2. Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Mojtaba Khamenei elected new Supreme Leader Mar 8. Conflict in Day 23+ with no ceasefire — possible ceasefire by May 2026.
ML Signal
22.2% prob · 30-day
Cycle Phase
Correction
25 mo post-halving #4
Direction Accuracy
70%
21/30 correct
ATH Drawdown
-35.8%
From $126.2k ATH
BTC Halving Cycle — Feaws Quarterly Projection
Wyckoff structure // Fibonacci anchors // Cycle phases
Feaws Quarterly Price Ranges
Q1 2026
$60k–$102k
War crash + recovery (actual)
Q2 2026
$70k–$95k
Ceasefire relief rally
Q3 2026
$85k–$115k
Post-war recovery + cycle momentum
Q4 2026
$100k–$140k
Bull cycle acceleration
Q1 2027
$120k–$170k
Bull cycle resumes
Q2 2027
$150k–$220k
Cycle 4 ATH zone
Halving Cycle
Bitcoin follows a ~4-year cycle anchored to halving events. We are 25 mo post-halving #4 (Apr 2024), transitioning from correction to recovery. War-induced bottom likely behind us → recovery phase underway.
Fibonacci Levels
Cycle 3 ran $15.5k → $126.2k. Key retracements: 61.8% = $57,787 (typical correction floor) and 78.6% = $39,190 (deep correction). These anchor the Q2 2026 capitulation box floor.
30d Forecast
Feaws runs GARCH(1,1) vol + GBR+Ridge ML drift + 10,000 Monte Carlo paths. Top forecast model: ML + Factor — 70% dir acc. Paper trading uses Balanced Hybrid.
Why Trust Feaws
Real Data
165,202 candles across 28 symbols from Binance, yfinance & Hyperliquid.
Zero Lookahead
30 quarterly walk-forward windows. Uses only past data — no future leakage.
Validated OOS
70% direction accuracy on 30 out-of-sample test windows. 96.7% CI90 coverage.
Open Logic
Every formula — GARCH, GBR, Monte Carlo, HMM — is documented step-by-step.
Hard Risk Cap
−20% hard stop-loss fires regardless of signal. No discretionary overrides.